Foreign exchange (“Forex”) trading is a complicated business. The foreign exchange trader must take into account (amongst other things) what may be called the “fundamental” factors of a country’s economy (i.e. the qualitative factors that may have a bearing on its currency’s exchange rate). So, what are these “fundamental” factors? They include political positions and developments (such as changes to a country’s government’s economic policy) and relevant decisions made by a country’s central bank. They also include any relevant pieces of economic news affecting the country in question. The Forex trader needs to not only be aware of this information at an early stage, but to effectively “second guess” how the money markets will react to it. It would probably be unwise for traders (even those with considerable market experience) to ignore these fundamental elements and to just base their market decisions on technical analyses.
Approximately three trillion dollars is traded each day on the foreign exchange market (on those days that it is operating), making it the world’s most liquid market. FX trading is vastly different to stock trading. (For example, in the Forex market, currencies are “paired” in that when one is bought, the other is sold, and vice versa.) As such, investors may find FX trading to be a useful means of diversifying their investment portfolios.
A number of factors make the Forex market unique (in addition to its liquidity, mentioned above). These include the fact that the market operates 24 hours a day, 6 days a week, and that traders in the market typically generate low profit margins (when compared with other markets).
The Forex market has changed quite dramatically since participation was opened up in the 1970’s; now, it is not just the banks, but a range of institutions and investors (both large and small) that routinely participate in the market. If you do choose to operate in this market, you would be well advised to enroll in a reputable course to learn the nitty gritty of the complicated world of currency trading, find out about the various different ways that this could be done and to consistently apply Forex trading strategies that work.
The important factors that a Forex trader needs to consider when conducting a fundamental analysis of a country’s economy include that country’s GDP, employment rate, trade balance and most recent budget. Much of this information is publicly available on the Internet.
The results of a fundamental analysis could affect a trader’s course of action in a number of ways. For example, a trader may use fundamental analysis to determine or predict the direction and extent to which a given country’s official interest rate may change. Based on this analysis, the trader may sell the country’s currency (if he/she predicts interest rates will fall), or buy the country’s currency (if he/she predicts interest rates will rise). Indeed, large investors may take this process a step further by seeking to effectively influence the value of a country’s currency. For example, such investors could fund industrial development in a country (when that country’s currency is weak) and subsequently sell back that country’s currency at a higher rate (when the currency is strong).
In an overall sense, if a Forex trader understands how to conduct a fundamental economic analysis, he or she will be in a much better position to know when to exit an “over inflated” economy before its financial “bubble” bursts.